Little Rock

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	308.0
Current RPI:	308
Expected SOS:	191
Current SOS:	191
Current Record:	6-24
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-12
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	300
Expected OOC SOS:	151

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-24	308.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	70-62	L	0%
11-18	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	76-51	L	0%
11-20	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	66-52	L	0%
11-25	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	64-78	L	0%
11-26	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	70-55	W	100%
11-29	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	71-65	W	100%
12-2	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	66-74	L	0%
12-9	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	69-54	L	0%
12-13	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	86-46	L	0%
12-15	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	57-55	L	0%
12-20	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	64-48	L	0%
12-29	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	63-77	L	0%
12-31	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	71-62	W	100%
1-4	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	73-64	L	0%
1-6	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	72-69	L	0%
1-11	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	77-65	W	100%
1-13	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	70-72	L	0%
1-20	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	62-70	L	0%
1-25	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	72-67	L	0%
1-27	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	72-62	L	0%
2-1	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	61-67	L	0%
2-3	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	51-81	L	0%
2-8	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	73-56	L	0%
2-10	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	82-64	L	0%
2-17	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	78-82	W	100%
2-22	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	60-65	L	0%
2-24	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	67-69	L	0%
3-1	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	48-44	L	0%
3-3	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	61-72	W	100%
3-7	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	N	93-64	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Little Rock	SB	26.36	26.36	19.12	19.12	-16.28	-16.28
Appalachian St.	SB	5.68	5.68	35.71	35.71	-1.62	-1.62
Arkansas St.	SB	4.21	4.21	28.57	28.57	-1.81	-1.81
Georgia Southern	SB	4.15	4.15	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
Georgia St.	SB	4.12	4.12	66.67	66.67	1.37	1.37
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.12	4.12	46.15	46.15	-0.32	-0.32
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.07	4.07	82.76	82.76	2.67	2.67
Coastal Carolina	SB	4.07	4.07	33.33	33.33	-1.36	-1.36
Central Arkansas	Slnd	3.39	3.39	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	2.73	2.73	62.50	62.50	0.68	0.68
Texas St.	SB	2.65	2.65	40.00	40.00	-0.53	-0.53
Troy	SB	2.62	2.62	43.33	43.33	-0.35	-0.35
South Alabama	SB	2.57	2.57	37.93	37.93	-0.62	-0.62
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.77	1.77	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	1.75	1.75	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.75	1.75	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
San Diego	WCC	1.75	1.75	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Bradley	MVC	1.72	1.72	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Memphis	Amer	1.67	1.67	60.61	60.61	0.35	0.35
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.67	1.67	25.93	25.93	-0.80	-0.80
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.30	0.30	80.00	80.00	0.18	0.18
Lamar	Slnd	0.28	0.28	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.24	0.24	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
New Orleans	Slnd	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
South Florida	Amer	0.21	0.21	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	8.00	8.00	-0.16	-0.16
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.14	0.14	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	32.00	32.00	-0.05	-0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Denver	Sum	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.08	0.08	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00